Njengoba ukungezwani phakathi kwe-Ukraine neRussia kuyaqhubeka, intengo yezinsimbi zomhlaba ezingandile izokhuphuka.

IsiNgisi: I-Abizer Shaikhmahmud, Imakethe Yesikhashana Yesikhashana

Ngenkathi inkinga yokuhlinzekwa kokuhlinzekwa kwemali ebangelwa yilesi sifo sobhubhane se-covid-19 ayizange ilulame, umphakathi wamazwe omhlaba ungenile eMpini yaseRussia - yase-Ukrasiya. Ngokwesimo sokukhuphuka kwamanani entengo njengokukhathazeka okukhulu, lokhu kudelelwa kunganwebeka ngale kwamanani entengo kaphethiloli, kufaka phakathi izinkambu zezimboni ezifana nomanyolo, ukudla nezinsimbi eziyigugu.

Ukusuka egolide kuya ePalladium, imboni yensimbi yomhlaba engavamile kuwo womabili amazwe ngisho nezwe lingahlangana nesimo sezulu esibi. I-Russia ingahle ibhekane nengcindezi enkulu yokuhlangana nama-45% okuhlinzekwa kwe-palladium yomhlaba, ngoba imboni isivele isenkingeni futhi okufunwa kudlula ukuhanjiswa. Ngaphezu kwalokho, selokhu kungqubuzana, imikhawulo yokuhamba komoya iye yanda kakhulu nobunzima babakhiqizi bePalladium. Emhlabeni jikelele, iPalladium isetshenziswa kakhulu ukukhiqiza abaguquli bezimoto abaguquli ukuthi banciphise ukuphuma okuyingozi ezinjinini ezi-oyili noma zedizili.

I-Russia ne-Ukraine emazweni ajwayelekile omhlaba angavamile, ethatha isabelo esikhulu emakethe yomhlaba. Ngokusho kwemakethe yemakethe yesikhathi esizayo eqinisekiswe yi-ESOMAR, ngo-2031, izinga lokukhula konyaka lemakethe yensimbi yomhlaba wonke lizoba ngo-6%, futhi womabili la mazwe angahlala esikhundleni esibalulekile. Kodwa-ke, ngenxa yesimo samanje, isibikezelo esingenhla singashintsha kakhulu. Kulesi sihloko, sizoxoxa ngokujulile umthelela olindelekile wale deamlock ezimbonini ezibalulekile ze-terminal lapho izinsimbi zomhlaba ezingavamile zithunyelwa khona, kanye nemibono ngomthelela wayo olindelekile kumaphrojekthi asemqoka nokushintshashintsha kwentengo.

Izinkinga embonini yezobuchwepheshe / yolwazi zingalimaza izintshisekelo ze-United States naseYurophu.

I-Ukraine, njenge-Hub eyinhloko yobunjiniyela nobuchwepheshe be-IT, ibhekwa njengendawo enezinsizakalo zeqembu elinenzuzo kanye nokuguga. Ngakho-ke, ukuhlasela kwaseRussia kwabalingani be-Soviet Union yangaphambili kuzothinta nakanjani izintshisekelo zamaqembu amaningi - ikakhulukazi i-United States naseYurophu.

Lokhu kuphazamiseka kwezinsizakalo zomhlaba wonke kungathinta izimo ezintathu eziyinhloko: Amabhizinisi aqonde ngqo ezinhlakeni zabahlinzeki bezinsizakalo kulo lonke elase-Ukraine; Ukusebenza ngaphandle kwezinkampani emazweni afana ne-India, okunezela amakhono awo ngokuthumela izinsizakusebenza ezivela e-Ukraine, kanye namabhizinisi anezikhungo zensiza yebhizinisi yomhlaba wonke ezakhiwe ngabasebenzi bezempi zempi.

Izinto zomhlaba ezingandile zisetshenziswa kabanzi ezingxenyeni ezibalulekile ze-elekthronikhi ezifana nezingcingo ezi-smart, amakhamera we-camputha, amalambu we-fluorescent kanye namalambu we-flat-panel kanye nemibukiso ye-flat-panel kanye nokugcizelela okuqhubekayo ngokubaluleka kwezakhi zomhlaba ezingandile.

Le mpi ibangele ukungaqiniseki okugcwele nokukhathazeka okungathi sína hhayi ekuqinisekiseni amathalente, kepha nasekukhiqizweni kwezinto zokwakha zobuchwepheshe bolwazi (iT) nengqalasizinda yezokuxhumana. Isibonelo, insimu ehlukaniswe yi-Ukraine eDonbass icebile ngemithombo yezemvelo, okubaluleke kakhulu yi-Lithium.lithium Mines asatshalaliswa ikakhulukazi eKruta Balka e-Zaporizzhia State, indawo ye-Pontetsk nePolokisovsk indawo ye-Dobra's Area area yaseDobra yaseDobra yaseDobra yaseDobra yaseDobra yaseDobra yaseTobra yaseDobra yaseDobra yaseDobra yaseTobra yaseTobra yaseDobra yaseDobra yaseTobra yaseDobra yaseTobra yaseTobra yaseDobra yaseDobra yaseTobra yaseDobra yaseTobra yaseTobra yaseTobra yaseTobra yaseDobra. Njengamanje, imisebenzi yezimayini kulezi zindawo iyekile, okungaholela ekushintshashintsheni okukhulu ezindaweni ezivamile zomhlaba zensimbi kule ndawo.

Ukusetshenziswa kwemali okwandayo kwe-Global Defence kuholele ekukhuphukeni kwamanani entengo yensimbi emhlabeni.

Ngenxa yokungaqiniseki okuphezulu okubangelwa impi, amazwe omhlaba wonke enza imizamo yokuqinisa amandla abo okuvikela kanye namasosha, ikakhulukazi ezindaweni eziphakathi kwethonya laseRussia. Isibonelo, ngoFebhuwari 2022, iJalimane yamemezela ukuthi izokwaba ama-euro ayizigidi eziyikhulu (US $ 113 billion) ukusungula imali yamasosha ahlomile agcina imali yokuzivikela ngaphezulu kwe-2% ye-GDP.

Le ntuthuko izoba nomthelela omkhulu ekukhiqizeni komhlaba okungavamile nokwakha amanani entengo. Izinyathelo ezingenhla ziqinisa ukuzibophezela kwezwe ukuze zilondoloze amandla aqinile okuvikela izwe, futhi kuhambisane nentuthuko eminingana ebalulekile esikhathini esedlule, kufaka phakathi isivumelwano esenziwe ngamaminerali asenyakatho, ngonyaka we-2019 ukuxhaphaza izinsimbi zomhlaba ezingavamile njenge-neodymium ne-prateodymium.

Ngaleso sikhathi, i-United States isilungele ukuvikela indawo yayo ye-NATO evela kulaka oluvulekile lwaseRussia. Yize kungeke kuthumele amabutho ensimini yaseRussia, uhulumeni wamemezela ukuthi wanquma ukuvikela yonke inch yensimu lapho amabutho evikela adinga ukuthunyelwa khona. Ngakho-ke, ukwabiwa kwesabelomali sokuvikela kungakhuphuka, okuzothuthukisa kakhulu ithemba lentengo le-Rare Earth Materials.Dukethwe e-Sonar, I-Night Vision Goggles, i-Laser RangeFinder, Ezokuxhumana kanye Nezinhlelo.

Umthelela embonini ye-Semiconductor Global ingaba kubi kakhulu?

Umkhakha we-semiconductor wembulunga yonke, okulindeleke ukuthi ajike maphakathi ne-2022, azobhekana nezinselelo ezinkulu ngenxa yokuxabana phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine. Njengomhlinzeki osemqoka wezakhi ezidingekayo ekwenziweni kwe-semiconductor, lo mncintiswano osobala ungahle uholele ekukhiqizweni kwemingcele kanye nokunikezwa kwamanani amakhulu.

Ngenxa yokuthi ama-semiconductor asetshenziswa kabanzi emikhiqizweni ehlukene yabathengi, akumangazi ukuthi ngisho nokunyuka okuncane kwezingxabano kuzoletha iketanga lonke lokuhlinzekwa. Ngokusho kombiko wokubheka imakethe yesikhathi esizayo, ngo-2030, imboni ye-semiconductor ye-semiconductor izokhombisa isilinganiso sokukhula sonyaka esingu-5.6%. I-semiconductor yokuhlinzekwa kwe-semiconductor iqukethe i-ecosystem eyinkimbinkimbi, ifaka abakhiqizi abavela ezifundeni ezahlukahlukene abahlinzeka ngezinto ezahlukahlukene eziluhlaza, imishini, ubuchwepheshe bokukhiqiza kanye nezixazululo zokupakisha. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kuhlanganisa nabasabalalisi kanye nabakhiqizi be-elekthronikhi yabathengi. Ngisho ne-dent encane kuyo yonke iketanga izokhiqiza igwebu, elizothinta wonke umuntu obambiqhaza.

Uma impi ibanda, kungahle kube nokunyuka okungathi sína embonini ye-semiconductor emhlabeni jikelele. Amabhizinisi azoqala ukuvikela izintshisekelo zawo futhi ahanjiswe inani elikhulu lama-semiconductor. Ekugcineni, lokhu kuzoholela ekushoneni okujwayelekile kokusungula. Kepha into eyodwa okufanelekile esiqinisekisayo ukuthi le nkinga ingagcina isuswe. Ukuze uthole ukukhula kwemakethe jikelele kanye nokuqina kwentengo embonini ye-semiconductor, izindaba ezinhle.

Imboni yemoto kagesi yomhlaba wonke ingabhekana nokumelana okukhulu.

Umkhakha wezimoto wembulunga yonke ungazizwa umthelela omkhulu kakhulu wale ngxabano, ikakhulukazi eYurophu. Emhlabeni jikelele, abakhiqizi bagxile ekunqumeni isilinganiselo sale mpi ye-Global Supply Chain Chain. Izinsimbi zomhlaba ezingandile ezinjenge-neodymium, i-praneodymium kanye ne-dysprosium zivame ukusetshenziswa njengama-magren waphakade okukhiqiza ukudla okulula, okuhlangene futhi okusebenzayo, okungaholela ekuhlinzekeni okunganele.

Ngokusho kokuhlaziywa, imboni yemoto yaseYurophu izohlupheka umthelela omkhulu ngenxa yokuphazamiseka kwezinto zokuhlinzekwa kwezimoto e-Ukraine naseRussia. Kusukela aphele ngoFebhuwari 2022, izinkampani eziningana ze-Global Global ziyekile ukuthumela ama-oda kusuka kubathengisi bendawo kubalingani baseRussia. Ngaphezu kwalokho, abanye abakhiqizi bezimoto bacindezela imisebenzi yokukhiqiza ukuze basuse lokhu kuqinisa.

NgoFebhuwari 28, 2022, iVolkswagen, umenzi wezimoto waseJalimane, kumenyezelwe ukuthi kwakunqume ukuyeka ukukhiqizwa ngamafektri amabili kagesi eviki lonke ngoba ukuhlaselwa kwaphazamisa ukulethwa kwezindawo ezisele. Umkhiqizi wezimoto unqume ukumisa ukukhiqizwa efektri yaseZviko nefektri eDresden. Phakathi kwezinye izinto, ukuhanjiswa kwezintambo kuphazanyiswe kakhulu. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuhlinzekelwa okusemqoka komhlaba we-Rare Earth Metals kufaka phakathi iNeodmium ne-dysprosium nakho kungathinteka. I-80% yezimoto zikagesi zisebenzisa lezi zinsimbi ezimbili ukwenza ama-motor we-magnet unomphela.

Impi e-Ukraine ingathinta kakhulu ukukhiqizwa komhlaba wonke kwamabhethri ezimoto zikagesi, ngoba i-Ukraine ngumkhiqizi wesithathu omkhulu we-nickel ne-aluminium emhlabeni, futhi lezi zinsizakusebenza ezimbili ezibalulekile ziyadingeka ukuze kukhiqizwe amabhethri nezitho zemoto kagesi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-neon ekhiqizwa ku-Ukraine i-Ukraine ama-70% e-Neon adingekayo kuma-chip emhlabeni kanye nezinye izinto, ezivele zisezingeni eliphansi, imiphumela esezingeni eliphansi yezimoto ezintsha e-United States ikhuphuke ekuphakameni okusha okumangalisayo. Le nombolo ingaba phezulu kuphela kulo nyaka.

Ngabe usizi luzothinta ukutshala imali kwegolide?

Ukuvinjelwa kwezepolitiki phakathi kwe-Ukraine neRussia kudale ukukhathazeka okukhulu nokukhathazeka emikhakheni enkulu ye-terminal. Kodwa-ke, uma kukhulunywa ngomthelela ngentengo yegolide, isimo sehlukile. I-Russia ingumkhiqizi wegolide wesithathu kunawo wonke emhlabeni, enomphumela waminyaka yonke wamathani angaphezu kwama-330.

Umbiko ukhombisa ukuthi kusukela ngesonto eledlule likaFebhuwari 2022, njengoba abatshalizimali bafuna ukuguqula imali yabo ekutshalweni kwezimali eziphephile, intengo yegolide ikhuphukile kakhulu. Kubikwa ukuthi ibala lentengo ye-Spot Gold Rose 0.3% kuya ku-1912 Lokhu kukhombisa ukuthi abatshalizimali banethemba elikhulu ngokusebenza kwalensimbi eyigugu ngesikhathi senhlekelele.

Kungashiwo ukuthi ukusetshenziswa okubaluleke kakhulu kwegolide ukwenza imikhiqizo kagesi. Kungumqhubi osebenza kahle osetshenziswe kwizixhumi, axhumene oxhumana nabo, ukushintshwa, amalunga we-welding, izintambo zokuxhuma kanye nemichilo yokuxhuma. Ngokuqondene nomthelela wangempela wenkinga, akucaci ukuthi ngabe kuzoba nomthelela wesikhathi eside. Kepha njengoba abatshalizimali bafuna ukuguqula ukutshala kwabo ngasohlangothini olungathathi hlangothi, kulindeleke ukuthi kube nezingxabano zesikhashana, ikakhulukazi phakathi kwamaqembu alwayo.

Ngenxa yemvelo engazinzi kakhulu yengxabano yamanje, kunzima ukubikezela ukuqondiswa kwentuthuko kwemboni yensimbi yomhlaba engavamile. Ukwahlulela kusuka kwithrekhi yentuthuko yamanje, kubonakala kuqiniseka ukuthi umnotho wemakethe womhlaba wonke ulibangise ekuwohlokeni kwesikhathi eside ekukhiqizweni kwezinsimbi eziyigugu nezinsimbi zomhlaba ezingandile, futhi amaketanga asemqoka azophazanyiswa ngesikhathi esifushane.

Umhlaba usufinyelele isikhashana. Ngemuva nje kwe-coronavirus (Covid-19) ubhubhane ngo-2019, lapho isimo besiqala nje ukwenza ngokwejwayelekile, abaholi bezepolitiki basebenzise lelo thuba ukuqala kabusha ukuxhumana nezepolitiki yamandla. Ukuze bazivikele kule midlalo yamandla, abakhiqizi benza konke okusemandleni ukuvikela i-chain ekhona yokuhlinzekwa kanye nokumisa ukukhiqizwa nomaphi lapho kudingeka.orse Izivumelwano zokusatshalaliswa ngamaqembu alwayo.

Ngasikhathi sinye, abahlaziyi balindele ukugcwala kwethemba. Yize imingcele yokuhlinzekwa esuka eRussia ne-Ukraine ingahle inciphise, kusekhona indawo eqinile lapho abakhiqizi befuna ukusetha unyawo eChina. Uma kucatshangelwa ukuxhashazwa okubanzi kwezinsimbi eziyigugu nezinto zokwakha ezingavuthiwe kuleli lizwe elikhulu lase-Asia, imingcele yokuqonda abantu ingahle ifakwe ku-Hold.EurOpean Abforser ingahle isayine kabusha izinkontileka zokukhiqiza kanye nokusabalalisa. Konke kuncike ekutheni abaholi bamazwe womabili babhekana kanjani nale ngxabano.

I-Ab Shaikhmahmud ngumbhali wokuqukethwe kanye nomhleli we-Market Market Insights, ucwaningo lwemakethe kanye nenkampani yokucwaninga ngemakethe eqinisekiswe yi-ESOMAR.