Njengoba ukungezwani phakathi kwe-Ukraine neRussia kuqhubeka, intengo yezinsimbi zomhlaba ezingavamile izokhuphuka.

IsiNgisi: Abizer Shaikhmahmud, Future Market Insights

Ngenkathi inkinga yokuhlinzekwa kwempahla edalwe wubhubhane lwe-COVID-19 ingakalulami, umphakathi wamazwe omhlaba usungene empini yaseRussia-Ukraine. Esimeni sokukhuphuka kwamanani njengento ekhathazayo enkulu, lokhu kuvalwa kungase kudlulele ngalé kwamanani kaphethiloli, okuhlanganisa izimboni ezinjengomanyolo, ukudla nezinsimbi eziyigugu.

Kusukela egolideni kuya ku-palladium, imboni yensimbi yomhlaba engavamile kuwo womabili la mazwe ngisho nasemhlabeni ingase ihlangabezane nesimo sezulu esibi. I-Russia ingase ibhekane nengcindezi enkulu yokuhlangabezana ne-45% ye-palladium yomhlaba wonke, ngoba imboni isivele isenkingeni futhi isidingo sidlula ukunikezwa. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kusukela kungqubuzana, imingcele yokuhamba ngezindiza iye yandisa nakakhulu ubunzima babakhiqizi be-palladium. Emhlabeni jikelele, i-Palladium isetshenziswa kakhulu ukukhiqiza iziguquli ze-catalytic zezimoto ukunciphisa ukukhishwa okuyingozi okuvela ezinjinini zikawoyela noma zikadizili.

I-Russia ne-Ukraine womabili amazwe abalulekile emhlabeni ayivelakancane, athatha ingxenye enkulu emakethe yomhlaba. Ngokusho kwe-Future Market Insights eqinisekiswe yi-esomar, ngo-2031, izinga lokukhula kwaminyaka yonke lemakethe yensimbi yomhlaba engavamile lizoba ngu-6%, futhi womabili la mazwe angase athathe isikhundla esibalulekile. Nokho, ngenxa yesimo samanje, isibikezelo esingenhla singashintsha kakhulu. Kulesi sihloko, sizoxoxa ngokujulile ngomthelela olindelekile walokhu kunqamuka kwezimboni ezibalulekile lapho kusetshenziswa khona izinsimbi zomhlaba ezingavamile, kanye nemibono ngomthelela wawo olindelekile kumaphrojekthi abalulekile kanye nokuguquguquka kwentengo.

Izinkinga embonini yobunjiniyela/yolwazi lobuchwepheshe zingase zilimaze izintshisekelo ze-United States ne-Europe.

I-Ukraine, njengesizinda esiyinhloko sobunjiniyela kanye nobuchwepheshe be-IT, ithathwa njengendawo enemisebenzi enenzuzo yasogwini kanye ne-offshore yezinkampani zangaphandle. Ngakho-ke, ukuhlasela kweRussia abalingani bezwe elaliyiSoviet Union nakanjani kuzothinta izithakazelo zamaqembu amaningi-ikakhulukazi i-United States ne-Europe.

Lokhu kuphazamiseka kwezinsizakalo zomhlaba wonke kungase kuthinte izimo ezintathu eziyinhloko: amabhizinisi akhipha ngokuqondile izinqubo zomsebenzi kubahlinzeki besevisi kulo lonke elase-Ukraine; Ukukhipha umsebenzi ezinkampanini ezisemazweni afana ne-India, ezengeza amandla azo ngokuthumela izinsiza ezivela e-Ukraine, kanye namabhizinisi anezikhungo zesevisi yebhizinisi lomhlaba wonke ezakhiwe ngabasebenzi bendawo yempi.

Izakhi zomhlaba ezingavamile zisetshenziswa kakhulu ezingxenyeni eziyinhloko ze-elekthronikhi ezifana namafoni ahlakaniphile, amakhamera edijithali, ama-hard disks ekhompiyutha, amalambu e-fluorescent namalambu e-LED, iziqapha zamakhompiyutha, amathelevishini angama-flat-panel kanye nemibukiso ye-elekthronikhi, okugcizelela nakakhulu ukubaluleka kwezakhi zomhlaba ezingavamile.

Le mpi idale ukungaqiniseki okusabalele kanye nokukhathazeka okukhulu hhayi kuphela ekuqinisekiseni amathalente, kodwa nasekukhiqizeni izinto zokusetshenziswa kwezobuchwepheshe bolwazi (IT) nengqalasizinda yezokuxhumana. Isibonelo, insimu ehlukanisiwe yase-Ukraine e-Donbass inothile ngemithombo yemvelo, okubaluleke kakhulu okuyizimayini ze-lithium.Izimayini ze-Lithium zisakazwa ikakhulukazi e-Kruta Balka yesifunda sase-Zaporizhzhia, indawo yezimayini yase-Shevchenkivse yaseDontesk kanye nendawo yezimayini ye-polokhivsk yaseDobra endaweni yaseKirovohrad. Njengamanje, ukusebenza kwezimayini kulezi zindawo kumile, okungase kuholele ekuguquguqukeni okukhulu kwentengo yensimbi yomhlaba engavamile kule ndawo.

Ukwenyuka kwezindleko zezokuvikela emhlabeni jikelele kuholele ekwenyukeni kwamanani entengo yensimbi yomhlaba eyivelakancane.

Ngenxa yezinga eliphezulu lokungaqiniseki okubangelwa impi, amazwe emhlabeni wonke enza imizamo yokuqinisa amakhono awo okuvikela izwe kanye nezempi, ikakhulukazi ezindaweni ezingaphansi kwethonya laseRussia. Isibonelo, ngoFebhuwari 2022, iJalimane yamemezela ukuthi izokwaba ama-euro ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-100 (amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-113) ukuze kusungulwe isikhwama esikhethekile samasosha ahlomile ukuze kugcinwe izindleko zayo zokuvikela ngaphezu kuka-2% we-GDP.

Lezi zinguquko zizoba nomthelela omkhulu ekukhiqizeni umhlaba ongavamile kanye namathemba entengo. Lezi zinyathelo ezingenhla ziqinisa nokuzibophezela kwezwe ekugcineni umbutho wezokuvikela wezwe oqinile, futhi ziphelezela intuthuko eminingana ebalulekile esikhathini esidlule, okuhlanganisa nesivumelwano okwafinyelelwa kuso neNorthern Minerals, inkampani yase-Australia ekhiqiza insimbi yobuchwepheshe obuphezulu, ngo-2019 sokuxhaphaza izinsimbi zomhlaba ezingavamile njenge. i-neodymium ne-praseodymium.

Khonamanjalo, i-United States isilungele ukuvikela indawo yayo ye-NATO ekuhlaselweni obala kweRussia. Yize ingeke ithumele amasosha endaweni yaseRussia, uhulumeni umemezele ukuthi uthathe isinqumo sokuvikela yonke indawo lapho kumele kutshalwe khona amasosha. Ngakho-ke, ukwabiwa kwesabelomali sezokuvikela kungase kukhule, okuzokwenza ngcono kakhulu ithemba lentengo yezinto ezingavamile zomhlaba.Kufakwe ku-sonar, izibuko zombono wasebusuku, i-laser rangefinder, uhlelo lokuxhumana nokuqondisa kanye nezinye izinhlelo.

Umthelela embonini ye-semiconductor yomhlaba ungase ube mubi nakakhulu?

Imboni yomhlaba wonke ye-semiconductor, okulindeleke ukuthi iguquke maphakathi no-2022, izobhekana nezinselelo ezinkulu ngenxa yokungqubuzana phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine. Njengomhlinzeki oyinhloko wezingxenye ezidingekayo ekukhiqizeni ama-semiconductor, lo mncintiswano osobala ungase uholele emikhawulweni yokukhiqiza kanye nokushoda kwempahla, kanye nokwenyuka kwamanani amakhulu.

Ngenxa yokuthi ama-semiconductor chips asetshenziswa kakhulu emikhiqizweni ehlukahlukene ye-elekthronikhi, akumangazi ukuthi nokukhuphuka okuncane kwezingxabano kuzoletha isiphithiphithi sonke. Ngokombiko wesikhathi esizayo wokubhekwa kwezimakethe, ngo-2030, imboni ye-semiconductor chip yomhlaba izokhombisa izinga lokukhula elihlanganisiwe lonyaka elingu-5.6%. Lonke uchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwe-semiconductor luqukethe i-ecosystem eyinkimbinkimbi,Kuhlanganisa nabakhiqizi abavela ezifundeni ezihlukene abahlinzeka ngezinto zokusetshenziswa ezihlukahlukene, okokusebenza, ubuchwepheshe bokukhiqiza kanye nezixazululo zokupakisha. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kufaka phakathi abasabalalisi kanye nabakhiqizi bama-electronics abathengi. Ngisho nokubola okuncane kulo lonke iketango kuzokhipha igwebu, elizothinta bonke ababambiqhaza.

Uma impi iba yimbi, kungase kube nokwehla kwamandla emali okungathi sína embonini ye-semiconductor yomhlaba wonke. Amabhizinisi azoqala ukuvikela izintshisekelo zawo futhi aqoqe inani elikhulu lama-semiconductor chips. Ekugcineni, lokhu kuzoholela ekushodeni okujwayelekile kwe-inventory. Kodwa into eyodwa okufanele kuqinisekiswe ukuthi le nkinga ingase isidambile ekugcineni. Ngokukhula kwemakethe iyonke kanye nokuzinza kwentengo yemboni ye-semiconductor, yizindaba ezinhle.

Imboni yezimoto zikagesi emhlabeni wonke ingase ibhekane nokuphikiswa okuphawulekayo.

Imboni yezimoto yomhlaba wonke ingase ibe nomthelela obaluleke kakhulu wale ngxabano, ikakhulukazi eYurophu. Emhlabeni jikelele, abakhiqizi bagxile ekunqumeni izinga lempi yomhlaba wonke ye-supply chain. Izinsimbi zomhlaba eziyivelakancane njenge-neodymium, i-praseodymium ne-dysprosium zivame ukusetshenziswa njengozibuthe unomphela ukuze kukhiqizwe izinjini zokudonsa ezikhanyayo, ezihlangene futhi ezisebenza kahle, ezingaholela ekunikezeni okunganele.

Ngokusho kokuhlaziywa, imboni yezimoto yaseYurophu izoba nomthelela omkhulu kakhulu ngenxa yokuphazamiseka kokuhlinzekwa kwezimoto e-Ukraine naseRussia. Kusukela ekupheleni kukaFebruwari 2022, izinkampani zezimoto zomhlaba wonke ziye zayeka ukuthumela ama-oda asuka kubathengisi basendaweni aya kozakwethu baseRussia. Ngaphezu kwalokho, abanye abakhiqizi bezimoto bacindezela imisebenzi yokukhiqiza ukuze baqede lokhu kuqiniswa.

Ngomhla zingama-28 kuNhlolanja wezi-2022, iVolkswagen, inkampani ekhiqiza izimoto zaseJalimane, yamemezela ukuthi inqume ukumisa ukukhiqizwa ezimbonini ezimbili zezimoto zikagesi isonto lonke ngoba ukuhlasela kuphazamise ukulethwa kwezinsimbi. Umkhiqizi wezimoto unqume ukumisa ukukhiqizwa efektri yaseZvico kanye nefekthri yaseDresden. Phakathi kwezinye izingxenye, ukudluliswa kwezintambo kuphazamiseke kakhulu. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuhlinzekwa kwezinsimbi ezibalulekile zomhlaba eziyivelakancane okuhlanganisa i-neodymium ne-dysprosium nakho kungase kuthinteke. U-80% wezimoto zikagesi zisebenzisa lezi zinsimbi ezimbili ukwenza amamotho kazibuthe angapheli.

Impi yase-Ukraine ingase futhi ibe nomthelela omkhulu ekukhiqizeni emhlabeni wonke kwamabhethri emoto kagesi, ngoba i-Ukraine ingumkhiqizi wesithathu omkhulu we-nickel ne-aluminium emhlabeni, futhi lezi zinsiza ezimbili eziyigugu ziyadingeka ekukhiqizeni amabhethri nezingxenye zemoto kagesi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-neon ekhiqizwa e-Ukraine yenza cishe u-70% we-neon edingekayo kuma-chips omhlaba nezinye izinto, esezivele zishoda. ukuphakama okusha okumangalisayo. Le nombolo ingaba phezulu kuphela kulo nyaka.

Ingabe le nkinga izoba nomthelela ekutshalweni kwegolide kwezentengiselwano?

Umdonsiswano wezepolitiki phakathi kwe-Ukraine neRussia udale ukukhathazeka okukhulu nokukhathazeka ezimbonini ezinkulu. Nokho, uma kuziwa emthelela wentengo yegolide, isimo sihlukile. I-Russia ingumkhiqizi wesithathu omkhulu wegolide emhlabeni, ekhiqiza amathani angaphezu kuka-330 ngonyaka.

Lo mbiko ukhombisa ukuthi kusukela ngesonto eledlule likaFebhuwari 2022, njengoba abatshalizimali befuna ukuhlukanisa ukutshalwa kwezimali kwabo ezimpahleni eziphephile, intengo yegolide ikhuphuke kakhulu. Kubikwa ukuthi inani lentengo yegolide lenyuke ngo-0.3% laya ku-1912.40 amadola ase-US ngeounce, kanti intengo yegolide yase-US kulindeleke ukuthi inyuke ngo-0.2% iye ku-1913.20 amadola ase-US iwunsi ngayinye. Lokhu kukhombisa ukuthi abatshalizimali banethemba elikhulu ngokusebenza kwale nsimbi eyigugu ngesikhathi senhlekelele.

Kungashiwo ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kokuphela okubaluleke kakhulu kwegolide ukwenza imikhiqizo kagesi. Kuyi-conductor esebenza kahle esetshenziswa kwizixhumi, oxhumana nabo abadluliswayo, amaswishi, amalunga okushisela, izintambo zokuxhuma kanye nemicu yokuxhuma. Mayelana nomthelela wangempela wale nkinga, akucaci ukuthi kuzoba khona yini umthelela wesikhathi eside. Kodwa njengoba abatshali bezimali befuna ukushintsha ukutshalwa kwezimali kwabo ohlangothini olungathathi hlangothi, kulindeleke ukuthi kube nezingxabano zesikhashana, ikakhulukazi phakathi kwezinhlangothi ezilwayo.

Uma kubhekwa isimo esingazinzi kakhulu sokungqubuzana kwamanje, kunzima ukubikezela indlela yokuthuthukiswa kwemboni yensimbi yomhlaba engavamile. Uma sibheka ithrekhi yamanje yentuthuko, kubonakala kuqinisekile ukuthi umnotho wemakethe yomhlaba uphokophele ekuwohlokeni kwesikhathi eside ekukhiqizeni izinsimbi eziyigugu nezinsimbi zomhlaba eziyivelakancane, futhi amaketango abalulekile okuphakelwa kanye namandla azophazamiseka esikhathini esifushane.

Umhlaba usufinyelele esikhathini esibucayi. Ngemuva nje kobhubhane lwe-coronavirus (Covid-19) ngo-2019, lapho isimo siqala ukuba ngokwejwayelekile, abaholi bezepolitiki babamba leli thuba ukuqala kabusha ukuxhumana nepolitiki yamandla. Ukuze bazivikele kule midlalo yamandla, abakhiqizi benza konke okusemandleni ukuvikela uchungechunge lokunikezela ngezinto ezikhona futhi bamise ukukhiqiza lapho kudingekile.Noma banqamule izivumelwano zokusabalalisa nezinhlangothi ezilwayo.

Ngesikhathi esifanayo, abahlaziyi balindele inhlansi yethemba. Yize imikhawulo yokuhlinzeka evela eRussia nase-Ukraine ingase iphumelele, sisekhona isifunda esiqinile lapho abakhiqizi befuna ukubeka unyawo eChina. Uma kucatshangelwa ukuxhashazwa okubanzi kwezinsimbi eziyigugu nezinto zokusetshenziswa kuleli zwe elikhulu laseMpumalanga Asia, imingcele abantu abayiqondayo ingase imiswe.Abakhiqizi baseYurophu bangase basayine kabusha izinkontileka zokukhiqiza nokusabalalisa. Konke kuncike ekutheni abaholi bala mazwe womabili balusingatha kanjani lolu dweshu.

U-Ab Shaikhmahmud ungumbhali wokuqukethwe kanye nomhleli we-Future Market Insights, ucwaningo lwemakethe kanye nenkampani yokubonisana yocwaningo lwemakethe egunyazwe i-esomar.